Polling Consolidation: Analyst Indicates Slowdown for Kast and Decline in Undecided Voter Percentage

Sociologist Marcos Valdés has released his third projection for the 2025 presidential election, based on median data from June to September. The study indicates that Jara and Kast are likely to move forward to the second round, with Kast showing signs of stagnation and Harold Mayne-Nicholls making a surprising rise, while undecided voters remain close to 10%.

The Citizen

17/10/2025 6:02pm

Original article: Consolidado de encuestas según analista: Proyecciones confirman “frenazo” de Kast y porcentaje de indecisos va disminuyendo

Polling Consolidation: 2025 Presidential Election Projections

In his third 2025 presidential election projection, sociologist Marcos Valdés Castillo revealed that candidates Jara and Kast are likely to advance to the second round, although trends indicate some nuances. «Both Jara and Kast would progress to the second round, and although Jara is trending downward, he is not outpaced by Kast,» stated the analyst in his report dated October 12.

Valdés elaborated that José Antonio Kast is experiencing a significant slowdown, remaining steady at 26% in July and dropping to 25% in September. Meanwhile, candidate Evelyn Matthei is emerging from her stagnation but continues to hold third place, showing a modest improvement of three percentage points during the same period.

This study, which excluded the CADEM survey due to «systematic errors» inflating Kast and Kaiser’s results, utilized data from Criteria, Datainfluyes, Panel Ciudadano, and Pulso Ciudadano, producing medians more reflective of reality. According to this methodology, Jara decreased from 31% in June to 27% in September, while Kast fell from 26% to 25.5%, and Matthei rose from 15% to 16.5%.

The fourth spot remains a contest between Kaiser (9%) and Parisi (7.2%), although the sociologist cautions that Parisi is losing momentum compared to Kaiser and demonstrates a more erratic performance than his competitors. In contrast, candidate Harold Mayne-Nicholls (HMN) has notably «tripled his initial performance,» reaching 3.3% in September.

“Mayne-Nicholls will be the candidate to watch in this election,” Valdés remarked, emphasizing that the former sports leader “is the right-wing candidate demonstrating superior soft skills,” a quality he shares only with Jara. Conversely, according to his analysis, Marco Enríquez-Ominami (MEO) continues to struggle, lingering at 1%, replicating a weak performance compared to his previous campaigns.

Another crucial aspect of the analysis is the behavior of undecided voters. Although this group tends to shrink as the election date approaches, it still hovers around 10%, which could influence final margins. «The striking thing is that they remain around 10%,» the sociologist pointed out.

Finally, Valdés indicated that this will be the penultimate projection before the legal ban on surveys kicks in, reminding that «the last one will be conducted in November,» just before the survey closure mandated by Chilean electoral law.