Argentina’s Skyrocketing Debt to the IMF: Over $820 Million Due in February

Original article: La exorbitante deuda de Milei con el FMI: Argentina enfrenta vencimientos por más de US$820 millones en febrero

After paying a $4.3 billion debt installment last Friday, Argentine President Javier Milei faces a daunting schedule with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The timeline includes six debt maturities through 2026, starting with an obligation of $826 million due on February 1.

In the next five years (2026-2030), Argentina is expected to pay around $13.5 billion solely in interest to the IMF, a stream of outflows subject to the conditions of international loans.

The weight of these commitments will be increasingly felt in the immediate future. According to GMA consultancy, «the dollar-denominated debt maturity profile shows a new configuration. We estimate that obligations in dollars to private entities and the IMF will reach $9 billion for the remainder of 2026. But by 2027, this figure will soar to $23 billion.»

A Multibillion-Dollar Debt and an Outstanding Disbursement

As of December 31, 2025, Argentina’s total debt to the IMF stood at $57.1 billion. The government is looking to cover this year’s capital and interest maturities, totaling $4.4 billion, through pending disbursements from a $20 billion loan agreed upon in April 2025.

However, the dynamics of debt are variable. If the country were to settle all future maturities without obtaining new loans, the interest figure would remain around the mentioned $13.5 billion. However, if the IMF approves the remaining $5 billion from that 2025 loan, the total debt and interest volume will expand.

The payment schedule for 2026 is precise and demanding:

-February: $826 million.

-May: $793 million.

-August: $820 million.

-September: $796 million.

-November: $815 million.

-December: $341 million.

To meet the imminent February deadline, the «libertarian» government will need to seek alternative resources, as the payment comes before any potential disbursement from the Fund. A key source could be part of the recent $3 billion Repo loan closed last week with six international banks at a 7.4% rate, which used sovereign bonds as collateral and helped cover part of the payment to bondholders, according to Perfil.

According to Página/12, the heaviest maturities, between $9.2 billion and $10.8 billion per year, will fall directly on the four-year term of the next government: from 2028 to 2031. Therefore, under the agreement with the IMF, the next government, regardless of its political stance, will enter the Casa Rosada bound hand and foot to commitments with the international organization.

The IMF’s Perspective and the Key to Reserves

A critical element in this scenario is the anticipated arrival of an IMF mission to Argentina in the coming days, with a date yet to be finalized. Their task will be to assess compliance with the objectives of the current agreement valid until the end of 2025 and monitor the progress of the structural reforms promised by the government. The approval of this review will have a direct effect, unlocking a $1 billion transfer to the country in Special Drawing Rights (SDR).

The accumulation of reserves by the Central Bank (BCRA) will be a central point of that review. In the first week of January 2026, the BCRA reported purchases of $218 million in the official market. However, this process remains constrained by a current account deficit of $1.163 billion and a seasonal context of lower dollar supply until the harvest begins.

Meeting the net reserve targets, which will be evaluated by the IMF in February, is the key to accessing new funds.

As the libertarian government navigates its commitments, the Argentine economy enters a year where debt management, reserve accumulation, and relations with the IMF will once again dictate economic policies that have so far been characterized by cuts in social spending, at the expense of the rights and quality of life of Argentines. The February 1 deadline is merely the first milestone on a path fraught with multibillion-dollar obligations.