Chile Presidential Poll: Jara at 37.3% Tops Kast at 22.2% in First Round, La Cosa Nostra Finds

The latest La Cosa Nostra (LCN) survey led by sociologist Alberto Mayol, conducted in the second half of September, confirms Unidad por Chile candidate Jeannette Jara as the frontrunner in the first round of November’s presidential election.

Asked, “Suppose the following names reach the first round to elect Chile’s president. Who would you vote for?”, 37.3% chose the former Labor and Social Security minister, keeping her clearly and firmly in first place.

José Antonio Kast of the Partido Republicano placed second with 22.2%.

With this result, Jara holds a 15.1-point advantage over Kast.

According to the poll, Chile Vamos candidate Evelyn Matthei is third with 18.2%.

Partido Nacional Libertario candidate Johannes Kaiser is fourth with 13.8%, followed by Harold Maynne Nicholls (4%), Franco Parisi (2.8%), Marco Enríquez-Ominami (1.0%)
and Eduardo Artés (0.7%).

Runoff scenarios

Conducted September 17–26 among 600 respondents, Mayol’s study also explored potential second-round matchups.

When asked, “Suppose Jeannette Jara and José Antonio Kast advance to a runoff. Who would you vote for?”, 41% said they would definitely vote for the ruling-coalition candidate and 53% said it was likely. For the far-right contender, 47% said they would definitely vote for him and 7% said it was likely.

In a hypothetical Jara–Matthei runoff, 36% said they would definitely vote for Jara and 5% said they were likely to back the former Labor and Social Security minister.

Meanwhile, 45% said they would definitely vote for Evelyn Matthei and 14% said they were likely to do so.

For a hypothetical Jara–Johannes Kaiser runoff, 43% said they would definitely vote for the Unidad por Chile candidate and 4% said they were likely to support her.

On the other side, 42% said they would definitely vote for Kaiser and 11% said they were likely to do so.