Inflation Figures in Question: Director of Argentina’s INDEC Resigns Amid Allegations of Statistical Manipulation

Original article: Cifras en duda: renuncia el jefe del “INE argentino” y Milei seguiría midiendo la inflación con parámetros de hace 22 años

Forced Resignation Due to Refusal to Update Inflation Index Raises Suspicions of Statistical Manipulation to Conceal the Impact of Neoliberal Economic Policies Implemented by Javier Milei’s Administration

The National Institute of Statistics and Censuses of Argentina (INDEC) is facing an institutional credibility crisis following the forced resignation of its director, Marco Lavagna. His departure came after pressure from President Javier Milei‘s government to prevent the implementation of a new, technically validated inflation measurement methodology approved by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

This decision from the so-called libertarian administration means that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will indefinitely continue to be calculated using a Household Expenditure Survey from 2004, a reflection of economic conditions and consumption habits that incorporates parameters from 22 years ago, failing to represent the current cost of living for Argentine families.

The crisis within the institution escalated on Monday when Lavagna communicated his decision to his team with a brief message: «I’m leaving,» according to internal sources confirmed by Página/12.

In subsequent personal meetings with area directors and a longer letter, he cited a «completed cycle» and called for the preservation of the statistical changes initiated during his tenure, a gesture interpreted as a political warning about the impending technical regression.

However, behind the euphemisms, the cited media outlet detailed that the specific reason for his exit was the direct opposition from President Milei and Economy Minister Luis Caputo towards updating the CPI measurement formula, a process Lavagna had led for over two years.

The Confirmation from the Libertarian Government that Sparked the Scandal

The tension between INDEC’s technical direction and the libertarian government became explicit shortly after Lavagna’s resignation when Minister Caputo confirmed the real reasons behind his departure.

«He resigned because we had been working on the new methodology for INDEC, and Marco intended to implement it now. The president and I always agreed that a change should be made once the process of disinflation was fully consolidated,» he acknowledged.

This explanation is considered «scandalous» by the Argentine press and analysts, as it delays a necessary methodological update, aimed at politically manipulating the inflation data.

The new CPI, based on the 2017/2018 National Household Expenditure Survey (ENGHo), had its prices measured and was scheduled for release on Tuesday, February 10, the day the January inflation rate would be announced. Informed sources indicated to Página/12 that the measurement using the new methodology would yield a rate «above 3 percent» for the first month of the year, while the government pressed for it to be «around 2 percent.»

The Libertarian Maneuver: Concealing Tariff Increases and Real Price Hikes

The government’s refusal has a concrete impact on measurement, as maintaining the weighting from 2004 systematically underestimates the real burden that certain categories, such as public utilities (electricity, gas, water, transportation) and communications, place on family budgets—while exaggerating others whose relative consumption has decreased.

«What the government is doing by avoiding updates is ensuring that tariff increases are not reflected in January, especially as food prices continue to rise. In simple terms, Milei is measuring inflation with the same household spending parameters as 22 years ago,» the cited media outlet warned.

Essentially, an artificially lower index is being manufactured that fails to capture the true inflationary pressure on the population’s income.

Pressure on Lavagna was intense in the days leading up to his resignation. Government sources revealed that he was told «not to publish it,» referring to the new formula. There was even a suggested compromise: to publish the January data using both methodologies. Caputo also rejected this option, as «this would show that inflation in the first two years of Milei would have been higher overall, and much higher in Services, due to tariff hikes.»

A Successor Aligned with the Old Methodology

To ensure that INDEC would not move forward with updating its methodology, Milei’s government quickly appointed Pedro Ignacio Lines as Lavagna’s successor, an economist linked to the macrismo and the Center for Macroeconomic Studies of Argentina (CEMA).

Lines, who according to Página/12 was job-hunting on LinkedIn just weeks ago, had previously been appointed by Caputo within the institute in a key role: «stopping the application of the new price formula during this time.»

His appointment as director consolidates political control over the agency and sends a clear message: measurement will continue to be based on outdated parameters.

This stance puts the Argentine government at odds with international recommendations, as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), a key creditor of the South American country, had validated the new methodology and urged its urgent application to improve statistical quality—a condition tied to financial assistance programs.

Crisis at INDEC

Lavagna’s resignation is not an isolated incident, but the culmination of a deterioration and pressure on INDEC. At the end of 2025, Tourism Secretary Daniel Scioli unilaterally decided to stop funding the International Tourism Survey and the Hotel Occupancy Survey, because «he didn’t like the data» regarding tourist movements. This left the agency unable to measure this sector since January.

Moreover, in August 2025, the institution had already experienced an internal shock, when in less than 24 hours, Guillermo Manzano, director of Living Conditions Statistics, and Georgina Giglio, director of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), resigned. This means that in just one day, the top technical leaders responsible for measuring poverty and inflation—the two most sensitive and «resilient» indicators for Milei’s government—departed. Their exits now take on a new and significant meaning.

Union Alert Following Lavagna’s Resignation

The INDEC workers’ union (ATE-INDEC) has called a press conference for this Tuesday at 1:30 PM to denounce the situation.

«We are profoundly alarmed and on high alert regarding the resignation just eight days before the release of the CPI with the new weighting.» They reiterated their demand for an «INDEC independent of political power» and drew an ominous historical parallel: «This feels like déjà vu because around a similar date in 2007, our agency was politically intervened because the January 2007 CPI data was not liked. We hope that on February 10 the CPI will be released with the new weights based on ENGHO 2018/2018,» they stated in a communiqué.

According to Página/12, in his farewell letter, Lavagna, without naming his superiors, left a coded but eloquent message: «We know that economic and social realities change constantly, and that the national statistical system needs to continue adapting and strengthening. In that journey, projects with a high level of development remain that I am sure can be completed and implemented soon.» He concluded, with a tone that echoed as criticism: «I trust that INDEC will continue to grow and consolidate, and that it will be possible to update the regulatory framework that supports this.»

The INDEC crisis transcends a resignation and poses a fundamental question for Argentine democracy: Are the official numbers a reflection of reality or an instrument of Milei’s governmental narrative?