Jara Holds the Lead at 27% in First Round; Runoff Projections Show Wins Over Parisi and Kaiser, Criteria Finds

Jeannette Jara leads the first round (27%) and, according to Criteria, would beat Parisi and Kaiser in a second round, while she would fall to Kast and Matthei in a runoff.

Cristian

06/10/2025 6:19am

The latest October Criteria poll places Jeannette Jara at the top of the first round with 27% support, followed closely by Republican Party candidate José Antonio Kast on 26%. Further back are Chile Vamos standard-bearer Evelyn Matthei (17%), Johannes Kaiser (10%), Franco Parisi (8%), and Harold Mayne-Nicholls (4%), while Marco Enríquez-Ominami and Eduardo Artés each register 1%; 6% express no preference.

In runoff scenarios, the Unidad por Chile candidate beats Parisi (35% vs 31%) and Kaiser (37% vs 35%); by contrast, she trails Kast (36% vs 47%) and Matthei (34% vs 41%).

First round: Jara holds the lead with 27%

The electoral snapshot shows Jeannette Jara in first place with 27%, one point ahead of Kast (26%), with Matthei firmly in third place (17%). Among candidates polling in single digits, Kaiser (10%) leads, followed by Parisi (8%) and Mayne-Nicholls (4%); MEO and Artés are at 1%. The “don’t know/no answer” universe holds at 6%. These figures confirm that, with 27% in the first round, the race for the top spot remains tight, but the government-aligned contender keeps the leading position.

**Jeannette Jara** leads the **first round (27%)** and, according to **Criteria**, would **beat Parisi and Kaiser** in a second round, while **falling** to **Kast** and **Matthei** in a runoff.

Second round: Jara defeats Parisi and Kaiser; trails Kast and Matthei

Head-to-head, Jara is ahead of Parisi (35% vs 31%) and of Kaiser (37% vs 35%), underscoring her competitiveness against figures from the rising right and far right. In contrast, Criteria projects an advantage for Kast (47% vs 36%) and for Matthei (41% vs 34%) in potential runoffs against the government candidate. In both matchups, null/blank responses reach 17% and 25%, respectively, suggesting margins that could still shift as the campaign progresses.

Beyond the first- and second-round presidential scenarios, October’s Criteria report includes approval of the President and the Government, an assessment of the opposition, the “imagined winner” (who is perceived to be the next President), candidate eligibility/consideration, and a section on Michelle Bachelet’s bid for UN Secretary-General along with opinions about the UN. The report also details its methodology and provides a summary of results.

Agenda Criteria 5 Octubre 2025 by lahuanche