A Perspective on China: Insights from Within

Original article: Una mirada a China… desde China

By Sergio Rodríguez Gelfenstein

I am once again in China, marking my thirteenth trip to this fabulous and intriguing country. Gaining a full understanding of what is happening here in just a few days is challenging, but it is possible to offer a brief overview that sheds light on some of the key national interests.

The nation is gearing up for 2027, the centenary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), coinciding with the 21st National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC), where Xi Jinping is expected to assume a fourth term as the party’s paramount leader and general secretary.

The country is guided by decisions made during the fourth plenary meeting of the CPC Central Committee, which outline the political, economic, and social policies for the 15th five-year plan, officially announced in March this year. In China’s planned economy, these plans hold special significance as they set the economic and strategic objectives for the 2026-2030 period.

Since the economy is the primary concern for Chinese authorities, the core focuses for the next five years will revolve around four pillars: scientific and technological leadership, enhancing national security—a broad concept that includes political, economic, military, and social dimensions—self-sufficiency, and stimulating domestic consumption as a growth engine.

However, the CPC does not shy away from acknowledging the risks and challenges facing the country, cautioning about increasing “uncertainties and unforeseen factors.” The major directives for this period are as follows:

1. Accelerate self-sufficiency and high-level scientific and technological self-strengthening to lead the development of new productive forces. This strategy unfolds against a backdrop of rivalry with the United States and the West, where Beijing recognizes the absence of conditions for a direct military confrontation, thus preparing for technological competition in sectors defining the Fourth Industrial Revolution, such as semiconductors, robotics, and artificial intelligence.
2. Build a solid domestic market and hasten the establishment of a new development pattern, an objective that is not new and China has yet to fully materialize. Private consumption remains low, accounting for around 39% of GDP in 2023, much lower than other advanced economies like the United States, Japan, or Germany. This factor explains China’s heavy reliance on foreign markets and exports, which is viewed as a strategic vulnerability.
3. Maintain “national security” as a fundamental pillar of all its strategies; this involves enhancing national defense and military modernization, firmly implementing a comprehensive concept of national security based on the idea that “governing the country requires first governing the Party, and that only when the Party thrives, does the country strengthen.” This approach will continue to see an increase in defense budgets to prepare, as Xi Jinping himself has stated, to “win wars.”

All this unfolds against a backdrop of a strong anti-corruption campaign that has permeated the Party, the State, and, notably, the military. During the fourth plenary session, the dismissal of 11 full members of the Central Committee and the expulsion of fourteen high-ranking CPC officials was announced. The condition of the Armed Forces has been a top concern for Chinese authorities. Of the seven members of the Central Military Commission (CMC) at the end of 2022, only Xi Jinping and Zhang Shengmin, the second vice chairman responsible for the military’s anti-corruption campaign, remain. Last year, nine high-ranking military generals, including He Weidong, the then-vice chairman of the CMC, were dismissed for “seriously violating Party discipline.”

In general, the most significant challenges perceived in the country relate to the need to maintain political stability, manage economic conditions, address the implications of artificial intelligence (AI) on employment—particularly among the youth—and elevate the well-being of the populace.

The economic situation, marked by deflation due to reduced domestic demand, coupled with the aim of achieving employment stability, may indeed be the foremost challenges that the government faces. Consequently, they aim to diversify the economy away from a model primarily focused on the real estate sector towards one encouraging other industries, particularly high-tech sectors. In this context, there is a superlative effort in the development of AI, robotics, and semiconductors.

On the international front, relations with the United States occupy much of the CPC’s, the government’s, and the State’s interest, especially concerning Washington’s interference in Taiwan, which Beijing regards as an internal issue. While China has proposed peaceful reunification with the island, it has also clearly stated the potential use of military means to achieve this should separatist intentions within Taiwan gain prominence, threatening the current status.

Another major international concern for China is the rapid rise of militarism in Japan following the ascent of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Breaking agreements established after World War II, the Japanese government has even hinted at starting efforts to develop nuclear weapons, explicitly prohibited after its military defeat in the mid-20th century. Takaichi’s comments linking Japan’s stability to Taiwan’s scenario have placed bilateral relations at a critical juncture.

This week, a Japanese parliamentary delegation composed of a ruling party legislator and two opposition members is in China with the aim of mending ties following Prime Minister Takaichi’s comments on Taiwan, which infuriated China and resulted in economic tensions.

On the multilateral front, Beijing has pledged to support the UN as a valuable tool for maintaining peace, upholding international law, and serving as a fundamental means for resolving disputes through negotiation and dialogue.

By Sergio Rodríguez Gelfenstein

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The views expressed in this section are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of El Ciudadano.

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