China Surpasses Expectations: Export-Driven Growth Fuels GDP to 4.5%, Keeping Annual Target Alive

Original article: China rompe el guion: el motor exportador impulsa el PIB al 4,5% y mantiene viva la meta anual

Exports hit a historic high in September, industrial production accelerates to six-month highs, and the year-to-date growth of 4.6% keeps Beijing on track to meet its annual target of 4.5%-5%.

The Citizen

The world’s second-largest economy has once again exceeded expectations. China recorded a 4.5% year-on-year growth from July to September, two-tenths higher than the previous quarter and above the 4.4% forecast by a consensus of analysts compiled by Bloomberg. This data, released on Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), indicates a cumulative growth of 4.6% between January and September, keeping the country within its official target range set by Beijing for the year: growth «between 4.5% and 5%.»

This result paints a picture of an economy leveraging foreign trade and advanced manufacturing as its main growth drivers. Far from losing momentum, China’s export sector set records in September: overseas sales surged by 36.3% year-on-year to $447.18 billion, the highest level ever recorded and well above the forecast of 25.5%. The monthly trade surplus expanded to $133.53 billion, and the total from the first nine months approaches $938 billion, heading towards surpassing last year’s record.

Behind this strength is global demand for technology related to artificial intelligence. Shipments of semiconductors, integrated circuits, and new energy vehicles—both hybrids and electric—are leading the growth. Additionally, Chinese exporters have expanded their presence in international markets: sales to the European Union increased by 25.3%, the fastest pace in seven months, while exports to ASEAN countries soared by 52.3%.

The industrial sector is responding robustly to this external demand. Industrial production accelerated by 5.5% year-on-year in September, marking its largest increase in six months, driven by equipment manufacturing (6.0%) and sectors such as electronics and electric machinery. Year-to-date, the production of advanced manufacturing equipment increased by 10.2% and high-tech production rose by 14.3%, with 3D printing up by 62.5% and lithium battery production increasing by 39.5%.

The 4.5% figure has provided a lifeline for policymakers. With a year-to-date growth of 4.6% and the annual target within reach, Beijing maintains its course without needing to resort to large-scale stimulus before the end of the year. The government has already injected selective measures: 1 trillion yuan in consumer and investment support policies, including subsidies for appliance and vehicle purchases, and 200 billion yuan in special bonds for renewing industrial equipment.

«Overall, the latest data suggests that growth momentum improved towards the end of the third quarter,» noted Zhou Hao, chief economist at Guotai Junan. Bloomberg operators described the initial market reaction as one of «relief» in response to the resilience of the GDP figure and the rebound in retail sales, which grew by 1.1% year-on-year in September, marking the best performance since March.

Financial markets reacted positively to the encouraging data. The yield on China’s 10-year government bond rose one basis point to 1.65%, while the offshore yuan appreciated by 0.1% to 6.6829 per dollar, accumulating over a 4% appreciation this year against the greenback.

With favorable winds for foreign trade and a thriving high-tech industry, China has avoided a hard landing and keeps its growth target for 2026 alive. The world’s second-largest economy continues to demonstrate that its adaptability and export prowess remain two of its strongest assets.