Chile’s Copper Prices Set to Hit Record Highs: Cochilco Predicts Historic Averages for 2025 and 2026

Original article: “El sueldo de Chile” en modo récord: Cochilco proyecta el mayor precio promedio del cobre en la historia

Chile’s copper market is experiencing one of its most favorable periods historically. The Minister of Mining, Aurora Williams, alongside the interim executive vice president of the Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco), Claudia Rodríguez, presented the Copper Market Trend Report for the third quarter, which updates the average copper price projections for 2025 and 2026.

In the latest outlook, Cochilco forecasts that copper will reach an average price of US$4.45 per pound in 2025 and US$4.55 per pound in 2026. If realized, the 2025 price would establish the highest average annual price on record for the metal, and the 2026 price would surpass even that, setting a new high.

Minister Williams explained that these shifts are driven by a combination of factors pushing the market upward: decreased copper supply, expectations of interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve, a declining dollar, and ongoing geopolitical and trade uncertainty, which enhances the appeal of copper as a strategic asset.

A Tighter and Bullish Copper Market

Interim executive vice president of Cochilco, Claudia Rodríguez, detailed that a balanced global copper market is expected in 2025, while a deficit of approximately 165,000 tons is anticipated for 2026. The primary reason: supply is expected to grow by around 1.4%, while demand is projected to increase by about 2.1%, amidst lower availability of scrap copper.

According to the report, this situation—balance in 2025 and slight deficit in 2026—creates a structurally more tense scenario than in previous cycles. Less available copper, increased demand, and reduced contributions from secondary supply (recycled copper) translate into a persistent upward price bias, reinforcing the expectation of historically high average copper prices, with projections of US$4.45 and US$4.55 per pound for the next two years.

Global Production: Moderate Recovery and Supply Risks

In terms of production, Cochilco forecasts that global mine copper production will reach 22.9 million tons in 2025, increasing to 23.8 million tons in 2026, indicating an annual growth of nearly 3.9%.

This progress is partially attributed to the gradual normalization of operations that faced significant incidents this year, including Grasberg, Kamoa-Kakula, and El Teniente, alongside the consolidation of projects in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and China.

However, the report warns that weaker secondary supply dynamics will keep the market vulnerable to unforeseen shocks, contributing to the perception of a tight market with fewer buffers.

Copper Demand: China, India, and Southeast Asia Lead Growth

On the consumption side, Cochilco estimates that refined copper demand will increase from 27.6 million tons in 2025 to 28.2 million tons in 2026. Most of this growth will come from China, followed by India and Southeast Asia, regions where industrial, energy, and infrastructure expansion continues to require substantial volumes of the metal.

In contrast, the United States is expected to show more moderate growth, influenced by tariffs and financial conditions, while Europe will exhibit expansion primarily linked to decarbonization projects and the strengthening of electrical infrastructure.

This scenario supports Cochilco’s analysis: demand will continue to exert upwards pressure in the coming years, while supply grows more slowly, further straining the market and reinforcing the projection of historically high average copper prices.

Chile’s Copper Production: Stagnation in 2025 and Modest Rebound in 2026

In the case of Chile, Cochilco forecasts that copper production in 2025 will remain similar to that of 2024, around 5.5 million tons. This stagnation is attributed to lower production volumes at Collahuasi, operations of Anglo American Sur, and the impact of operational incidents in structural sites such as El Teniente.

For 2026, the outlook is somewhat more optimistic: production is expected to reach 5.6 million tons, which represents a 2.5% increase compared to this year’s forecast, linked to the partial normalization of operations affected in 2025.

As the world views copper as a key asset in the energy transition and electrification, Chile faces the challenge of recovering production dynamism amidst a period when the metal is experiencing one of its highest valuations, with an average copper price projected at US$4.45 per pound in 2025 and US$4.55 in 2026, solidifying the «sueldo de Chile» in record mode.

Check out Cochilco’s report presentation:

Copper Market Trend Report Presentation Q3 2025 by lahuanche