Copper Prices on the Rise: Cochilco Projects US$4.95 per Pound in 2026 and US$5.00 in 2027

Original article: Cobre con viento a favor: Cochilco proyecta US$ 4,95 la libra en 2026 y US$ 5,00 en 2027

«Cochilco forecasts a higher copper price for this year and next, primarily due to the ongoing scarcity of the metal as supply remains unstable, experiencing recurrent shortages, especially in copper concentrates,» explained Mining Minister Aurora Williams.

In an international scenario marked by supply tensions and the emergence of new technological demands, Chilean copper appears to be entering a prolonged period of high prices.

The Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco) has released its Market Trends Report for the fourth quarter of 2025, significantly raising its price projections for the next two years. According to the report, the average price of the red metal is expected to reach US$4.95 per pound in 2026 and solidify at US$5.00 in 2027, figures reflecting an upward adjustment from previous estimates and painting an optimistic horizon for the country’s main export product.

Mining Minister Aurora Williams officially announced these new projections, based on the trends in international demand.

«Cochilco estimates a greater copper price for this and next year primarily due to continued metal scarcity, as supply remains unstable, with repeated episodes of tight supply, particularly in copper concentrates. This situation has raised premiums for immediate delivery, resulting in greater volatility,» the Minister explained.

Williams cautioned that this outlook is not without risks and noted that the record prices are a result of a strained market, where relatively minor disturbances can lead to significant fluctuations.

Tight Balance and New Demand

Cochilco’s analysis is primarily supported by market fundamentals, specifically the refined copper balance. Claudia Rodríguez, the acting executive vice president of the institution, stated, «A moderate deficit is projected for 2026.»

«More important than the magnitude of the deficit is that it coincides with critical inventory levels in high-demand areas; and in 2027, the balance is expected to return to a near-equilibrium, but without ensuring effective surplus if inventory rebuilding competes with current consumption,» she noted in statements quoted in a press release.

This scenario of low structural surplus acts, in Rodríguez’s words, as «the fundamental anchor of the market,» underpinning the extreme sensitivity of pricing and validating the trajectory of high prices.

However, the most profound change indicated in the report is that copper has ceased to rely solely on traditional demand sectors.

«Today, a digital block driven by Artificial Intelligence and data center infrastructure emerges, requiring up to five times more copper than conventional installations. This demand, in addition to massive investments in electrical grids, establishes a much higher and more resilient price floor,» she added.

Thus, copper has moved away from its reliance on construction and traditional manufacturing to find growth engines in the digital revolution and energy transition.

Supply, Demand, and Chile’s Leadership in Copper Market

According to the report’s projections, global copper production is expected to reach 23.73 million tons in 2026, an increase of 2.2% over 2025, rising to 25 million tons in 2027, representing a 5.4% increase.

Chile will maintain its position as the world’s top producer, with a share close to 24%, while domestic production is estimated at 5.6 million tons for 2026 and 5.97 million tons for 2027, reflecting increases of 3.7% and 6.4%, respectively.

On the demand side, global consumption is projected to reach 28.4 million tons in 2026 (up 2.7%) and 29.2 million tons in 2027 (an increase of 2.8%).

China, while moderating its growth, will continue to anchor the market with approximately 58% of global consumption. The report indicates that its expansion will align more with a cycle driven by investments in networks, renewable energy, and selective stimulus, rather than a broad industrial acceleration.

This intersection of data translates into a tight balance. A moderate deficit of refined copper of 238 thousand tons is projected for 2026, but structural tension signals exist due to declining inventories. For 2027, a slight surplus of only 51 thousand tons is anticipated.

Impact of Financial, Macro, and Geopolitical Factors

Despite the optimism in the medium-term fundamentals, Cochilco acknowledges the uncertainty factors that dominate daily volatility. Rodríguez specified that «in the short term, prices will be influenced by financial, macro, and geopolitical factors, risk appetite, interest rate cycles, the dollar, and trade uncertainties, which amplify movements and signal daily trends.»

However, she emphasized that the global balance of refined copper acts as the market’s fundamental anchor: while it does not explain every individual variation, its current state of low surplus sustains extreme price sensitivity, validating the trajectory of high prices projected by Cochilco.