Colombia’s Iván Cepeda Leads Presidential Vote Intentions Ahead of 2026 Elections

Original article: Colombia: Iván Cepeda lidera la intención de voto presidencial y se impone en los dos escenarios de segunda vuelta en que compite

Colombian Senator Iván Cepeda dominates the voting intention for the upcoming presidential elections scheduled for mid-2026, as citizens prepare to choose a successor to Gustavo Petro.

This information comes from the latest edition of the «Colombia Opina» poll conducted by Invamer for Noticias Caracol and Blu Radio, published on the night of November 30, 2025, just six months before the first round of the presidential elections.

The results reveal a strengthening of the progressive movement, positioning Senator Iván Cepeda —who won the Pacto Histórico consultation held on October 26— at the forefront of the presidential race, backed by a strong majority of Colombians who support Petro’s focus on life, social justice, and dignity.

According to the poll, the senator gained 31.9% support from respondents, far surpassing the 18.2% of lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella and the 8.5% of former Antioquia governor Sergio Fajardo.

Following them, candidates like Miguel Uribe Londoño (4.2%), who replaced his son, murdered senator Miguel Uribe Turbay, as the right-wing Centro Democrático party candidate, and former Bogotá mayor Claudia López, from the center-left Imparables movement, with 4.1%, lag behind.

Significantly lower in support are other candidates among the 30 registered in the country for the presidency.

Those who received support between 1.1% and 3.7% include: Vicky Dávila (3.7%), Juan Carlos Pinzón (2.9%), Germán Vargas Lleras (2.1%), Santiago Botero (1.8%), Juan Manuel Galán (1.6%), Aníbal Gaviria (1.3%), Enrique Peñalosa (1.1%), María Fernanda Cabal (1.1%), and Paloma Valencia (1.1%).

Additionally, candidates who garnered support between 0.2% and 1.0% include: Camilo Romero (1.0%), Luis Gilberto Murillo (0.9%), Luis Carlos Reyes (0.8%), Carlos Caicedo (0.8%), Efraín Cepeda (0.7%), Paola Holguín (0.7%), Roy Barreras (0.6%), David Luna (0.6%), Mauricio Cárdenas (0.6%), Juan Daniel Oviedo (0.5%), Mauricio Armitage (0.5%), Felipe Córdoba (0.5%), Mauricio Gómez Amín (0.4%), Mauricio Lizcano (0.3%), Daniel Palacios (0.2%), and Juan Fernando Cristo (0.2%).

Meanwhile, the «blank vote» option registered at 4.5%, while the «others» category, which includes names like Juan Guillermo Zuluaga, Héctor Olimpo, Juan Carlos Cárdenas, and Carolina Corcho, as well as those nominated «by whom Gustavo Petro says» and «by whom Álvaro Uribe says,» garnered 2.5%.

Iván Cepeda Victorious in Second Round Scenarios

The survey— which gathered opinions from 3,800 citizens across 148 municipalities, including 26 capital cities, and boasts a margin of error of 1.81% with a 95.0% confidence level —indicates that, in the event of a second round presidential election on June 21 next year, Senator Iván Cepeda would comfortably win in all scenarios.

In a potential runoff between Cepeda and De la Espriella, the progressive candidate would secure a resounding victory with 59.1% against 36.2% for the right-wing candidate.

Against Fajardo, Cepeda would show a 48.9% to 46.4% lead.

In a third scenario, Fajardo would defeat De la Espriella with a 51.7% to 38.9% margin.

This poll, the first published after a three-month electoral embargo due to the new survey law, was conducted by Invamer S.A.S. and funded by Noticias Caracol and Blu Radio, with fieldwork carried out between November 15 and 27, 2025.

Invamer’s manager, Martín Orozco, stated on Blu Radio that Cepeda remains firmly in first place because, in addition to emerging as the sole candidate from the left, he attracts support «from the center and even from people who claim to have no political affinity.» This contrasts sharply with the center and right, which have spread their electoral flow across numerous candidates.