Experts Forecast Inflation to Exceed 4% by End of 2026, Government’s 3.8% Target Seems Increasingly Unattainable

Original article: Expertos proyectan inflación sobre 4% al cierre de 2026 y ven cada vez más lejana la meta de 3,8% del Gobierno

Experts predict that inflation will remain above 4% by the end of 2026, whereas the government led by José Antonio Kast aims for a 3.8% rate.

The goal set by La Moneda appears to be increasingly difficult, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) recording a 4% rise this year and 4.1% over the past twelve months.

In its latest report, the National Institute of Statistics (INE) announced that the index rose by 0.4% in September 2026, with 8 out of the 13 divisions contributing positively to the month-to-month variation, particularly in the case of food, non-alcoholic beverages, and transportation.

Following these findings, Finance Minister Jorge Quiroz pointed to the Central Bank as the «keeper of price stability«.

«We would like to see this trend decrease, and measures must be taken, from a monetary standpoint, to keep inflation in check,» he stated.

Kast’s government projected a 3.8% inflation rate in its Public Finance Report, and Quiroz acknowledged that achieving this target is «challenging».

«We believe there may be an adjustment, a slowdown in price growth. We will monitor the variables,» he noted, admitting that the 3.8% target is not guaranteed.

In light of this situation, experts anticipate that the CPI will remain above 4% by the end of the year.

«Ultimately, this confirms that the inflation trajectory will stay above 4% until year-end,» remarked Juan Ortiz from the Economic Context Observatory at Diego Portales University.

He pointed out that the results were not surprising, as the market had anticipated a 0.5% increase but observed only a 0.4% rise.

«Continuing pressures from the food and alcoholic beverages division, along with transportation costs, are driving the month-to-month CPI variation in September,» Ortiz said, referencing the INE’s report.

Inflation, Food, Transportation, and Their Impact on Family Budgets

Patricio Ramírez, coordinator of the Economic and Social Observatory at La Frontera University (UFRO), described the 3.8% inflation target set by Kast’s administration as ambitious.

«The projection of 3.8% annual inflation for 2026 is quite challenging and ambitious, given the current landscape. I believe we may be much closer to 4%, possibly slightly above that figure,» he said in comments reported by Diario U. de Chile.

For Ramírez, the composition of inflation is crucial. «It could be 3.8% or 4%, but I think a critical factor will be the composition of that inflation, meaning whether a significant portion continues to be driven by food and transportation, as it has been so far,» he explained.

This pressure, he added, affects the cost of living for Chileans. «This represents a significant blow to family budgets, as these two divisions, food and transportation, are among the most significant in the CPI basket, meaning families allocate a high percentage of their income to them,» he said.

«So, I’d say there are two important themes: on one hand, meeting that projection, that goal, but not forgetting to examine the composition of inflation when we reach year-end,» the expert emphasized.