Global Warming: Study Confirms Rise of 1.37 °C by 2025, Warns Critical 1.5 °C Threshold Could Be Exceeded by 2030

Original article: Calentamiento global: Estudio confirma aumento de 1,37 °C en 2025 y advierte que umbral crítico de 1,5 se superaría en 2030

This week, the journal Earth System Science Data published the study «Indicators of Global Climate Change» (IGCC), confirming that Earth’s temperature will reach 1.37 degrees Celsius by 2025, with projections indicating it could exceed 1.5 °C by 2030.

The news was reported by the EFE Agency, noting that the report was created by over 70 scientists from 56 institutions across 17 countries.

It is essential to remember that the 1.5 °C increase over pre-industrial levels represents a «vital limit» or «critical threshold» set in the Paris Agreement, which, if surpassed, would unleash catastrophic and irreversible consequences for the planet.

Among its conclusions, the IGCC study reveals that the Earth’s energy imbalance—a key indicator measuring how quickly heat accumulates in the climate system—has more than doubled in recent decades.

Piers Forster, director of the Centre for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds and the report’s lead author, highlighted this indicator as «crucial,» stating it provides a vital metric of the pace of climate change.

«Without human influence, this should be close to zero, but it has been increasing since the 1970s; it is now at a record level, having doubled in recent decades,» the scientist stated.

The report also confirmed that global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are currently at a new historical peak, with 56.8 billion tonnes (gigatonnes [Gt]) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) emissions recorded in 2024, primarily due to fossil fuel combustion.

Additionally, the study introduced a new indicator related to the number of days with marine heat waves, noting that these have «more than tripled» globally between 1991 and 2025, consistent with the ongoing warming of ocean surfaces. In 2025 alone, 65 days of marine heat waves were recorded, according to the scientific analysis.

We will continue to provide updates.