Iván Cepeda Gains Momentum in Colombia: Leads Presidential Polls and Would Defeat Right-Wing Candidates in a Runoff

Original article: Iván Cepeda pisa fuerte en Colombia: lidera y también derrotaría a la derecha en segunda vuelta

The progressive candidate from the Pacto Histórico movement, Iván Cepeda, continues to gain traction, leading the presidential election polls in Colombia with 44.3% as the first round of elections approaches on May 31, according to the latest survey conducted by Invamer for Noticias Caracol and Blu Radio.

The survey, which assessed 13 candidates, indicates that Cepeda has increased his support by 7.2 percentage points, rising from 37.1% reported in February.

The study, conducted between April 15 and 24 through 3,800 face-to-face interviews in 149 municipalities nationwide, reflects a significant lead for the progressive candidate over his main contenders: the far-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella at 21.5% and Paloma Valencia from the Centro Democrático party at 19.8%, who are competing for second place and a chance to advance to a runoff.

Meanwhile, the option of «blank votes» recorded a 4.8% share, and other candidates received less than 5% of support, including Claudia López (3.6%) and Sergio Fajardo (2.5%).

Cepeda Would Also Defeat the Right-Wing in a Runoff

According to the Invamer survey, Iván Cepeda would win in all potential runoff scenarios on June 21, positioning himself as the likely successor to current President Gustavo Petro.

If he were to face De la Espriella, he would secure 54.6% compared to 42.6%; against Valencia, he would triumph with 51.2% over 46.6%.

Furthermore, the measurement indicates that 56.5% of respondents affirmed they will exercise their voting rights on May 31, while 20.1% stated they probably would.

Additionally, it revealed that 47.3% approve of Petro’s management, which prioritizes life, social justice, and dignity.

Looking ahead to the presidential elections, Invamer has conducted three surveys (November 2025, February 2026, and April 2026) and consistently, the progressive candidate has led the intention to vote.