NATO: the fine print in the negotiations which made Türkiye changing its position on the accession of Sweden and Finland to the bloc

Türkiye decided to lift this Tuesday in Madrid (Spain), its veto to the candidacy of Sweden and Finland to enter NATO. After weeks of negotiations, with Ankara vetoing the Nordic countries, contacts intensified in recent hours to fix the situation at the Madrid summit.

Türkiye’s decision was made known after a meeting of the top leaders of the three countries, with the presence of the Secretary General of the Alliance, Jens Stoltenberg, in the Spanish capital. “We have reached an agreement that paves the way for Sweden and Finland to join NATO”, Stoltenberg said in an appearance immediately after the signing of a memorandum between the allied country and the two applicants, which the ministers of Foreign Affairs of the three States publicly signed.

The signed document «addresses Türkiye’s concerns, including those related to the export of weapons and the fight against terrorism», added the secretary general of the Alliance, referring to the two main issues of Ankara to give its approval to the accession of Stockholm and Helsinki. «Soon we will be 32», he added.

The decision, which sends a powerful political signal to Russia four months after the conflict in Ukraine began, paves the way for the ninth expansion of NATO, which this Wednesday, according to Stoltenberg, the allies will make the decision to formally invite Sweden and Finland to become members. The decision on their access will have to be approved in all the allied capitals.

The road ahead, in any case, may still be long. The lifting of the Turkish veto is «only at the invitation» that NATO will make to Sweden and Finland, according to a source from the Turkish delegation to the Spanish media outlet El País. In this way, these countries will achieve candidate status, but Türkiye reserves the right to veto the final entry of Finland and Sweden in case they do not meet the requirements made by Ankara that are included in the memorandum.What did 

Türkiye, Sweden and Finland agree on?

The meeting between the three leaders lasted for more than two hours. «As a result of that meeting, our foreign ministers have signed a trilateral memorandum confirming that Türkiye will support at this week’s Madrid Summit the invitation of Finland and Sweden to become NATO members«, said the Finnish President Sauli Niinistö after signing the document in a statement. «The concrete steps of our accession to NATO will be agreed by the Allies during the next two days, but that decision is already imminent», he added.

US President Joe Biden welcomed the agreement: «Congratulations to Finland, Sweden and Türkiye for signing a trilateral memorandum, a crucial step towards a NATO invitation to Finland and Sweden, which will strengthen our Alliance and enhance our collective security and a great way to start the Summit».

The signed document, to which the spanish media had access to, states that «Finland and Sweden will not provide support to [the Kurdish militias] YPG / PYD [their political arm], and the organization described as FETÖ inTürkiye  [referring to the political-religious organization of the Islamist preacher Fethullah Gülen, a former Erdogan’s ally turned adversary and whose members were allegedly involved in the 2016 coup attempt]».

In the text, the two candidate countries also «confirm that the PKK [Kurdistan Workers’ Party] is a proscribed terrorist organization» and both undertake to «prevent their activities», it adds, referring to the Kurdish armed group that since 1984 has maintained the armed struggle against the Turkish State demanding more rights and autonomy for the Kurdish population of Türkiye. More than 45,000 people, mostly Kurds, have died in the conflict.

In his appearance to the press, Stoltenberg added that Finland and Sweden are «willing to work with Türkiye on the pending deportations or extradition of individuals suspected of terrorism», but with the guarantee that this process is carried out «in accordance with the European Convention of Extradition» and with respect «to the rule of law».

The end of the neutrality of Sweden and Finland if they reach NATO

The parties have hurried up the time being aware that the message of an agreement that would open the door to Stockholm and Helsinki would be powerful: two countries with irreproachable democratic credentials abandon their traditional neutrality to enter the military organization, which will once again point to Russia as its main threat, as it did during the Cold War with the Soviet Union.

Even then, Sweden and Finland did not abandon that status and, now, moved by the conflict in Ukraine, they have taken a step that can be described as historic. «We hope to move forward with the accession of Sweden and Finland», said Stoltenberg.

After the two Scandinavian countries applied to join the alliance, Türkiye  blocked the bids. The Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, accused them, especially Sweden, of not being sensitive to his demands on the Kurdish organizations that he accuses of terrorism and for the restrictions on the sale of weapons that Stockholm and Helsinki imposed in 2019 to Ankara.

It also bothers him that the followers of the cleric Fethullah Gülen, whom he accuses of being behind the failed coup of 2013, are not being extradited. And before leaving for Madrid, he made it clear that he was going to put a price on it, saying that he would not settle for «empty words», that he wanted «concrete» measures. «Integration into NATO implies responsibilities», he noted.

These words by Erdogan were hours after Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson stated in Brussels, at NATO headquarters on Monday, that her country considers the PKK a terrorist organization, just as the European Union does. Anderson also highlighted a conversation with Erdogan last Saturday, calling it «constructive».

The meeting between her, Erdogan, Stoltenberg and the president of Finland seemed this Tuesday as the last opportunity to unclog the situation at the summit itself and launch that «powerful message», as a NATO diplomat defined it a couple of weeks ago .

While the meeting was underway, two Finnish newspapers (Helsingin Sanomat and Iltalehti), quoted by Reuters, reported that negotiations were expected to continue as delegations prepared a joint memorandum outlining Turkish concerns about Sweden and Finland’s entry into NATO.

In the meantime, and to ensure that if there were an aggression they would have the support of the Allies, several countries have already guaranteed Sweden assistance, as Andersson indicated on Monday: «The US, the UK, Germany, France, Spain , Norway and Denmark have given Sweden clear guarantees of support during the application period. For that we are very grateful».

In any case, if the Turkish veto had been maintained, NATO was not going to throw in the towel. “The [Madrid] summit was never a deadline. All NATO leaders are present, as well as the leaders of Sweden and Finland. So this gives us an opportunity that we can’t miss to see how much progress we can make», explained Stoltenberg.